DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/13 11:02

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 3 to 7 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 5 
to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 3 to 7 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 5 
to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher. The U.S. 
stock market is sharply higher with the S&P 145 points higher. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 122 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade 
is mixed with crude 1.35 higher and natural gas .06 lower. Livestock trade is 
mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 25.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 3 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to 
fresh lows as oversold conditions increase after we failed to extend 
post-report gains and spread action continued to soften as July-December goes 
to a carry. On the report, we saw old-crop carryout at 1.415 billion bushels 
(bb) versus 1.465 bb expected and new-crop at 1.80 bb versus 2.02 bb expected. 
The first yield estimate was 181.0 bushels per acre (bpa) with Brazil 
production rising and overall world numbers little changed. Ethanol margins are 
getting a boost from unleaded strength. Warmer weather into midmonth should 
keep planting solidly ahead of the average pace with better rains the second 
week to boost emergence. Monday's weekly crop progress showed 62% planted 
versus 56% on average and 28% emerged versus 21% on average. Basis should 
remain fairly sideways near term. Double-crop weather in Brazil continues to 
have few issues as we get deeper into the growing season. On the July chart, 
the 20-day moving average at $4.75 is resistance with support the fresh low at 
$4.36 1/2.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade working to 
consolidate post-report gains with oil leading the product complex and action 
grinding back from the early lower levels. Meal is 3.00 to 4.00 lower and oil 
is 55 to 65 points higher. On the report, trade saw old-crop carryout at 350 
million bushels (mb) versus 368 mb expected and new crop at 295 mb versus 375 
mb expected; yield at 52.5 bpa. World stocks were basically unchanged. South 
American weather will remain conducive to harvest progress. Warmer weather 
should boost planting pace and emergence into midmonth with planting at 48% 
versus 37% on average and 17% emerged versus 11% on average. Basis will likely 
find a little better short-term action if crush can recover further. On the 
July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $10.50, which we popped 
well above, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $10.69 as resistance.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 1 cent lower to 3 cents higher at midday with fresh lows 
again overnight as we get more oversold with light short-covering starting to 
develop during the day session. The hard red wheat areas are expected to see OK 
short-term weather, along with near-term improvement in the Black Sea 
continuing. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent 3% better on winter 
wheat to 54% with 18% poor to very poor. Heading was reported at 53% versus 45% 
on average. Spring wheat is 66% planted versus 49% on average and 27% emerged 
versus 19% on average. On the report, we saw old-crop carryout at 841 mb versus 
847 mb expected, and new at 923 mb versus 857 mb expected. MATIF wheat is 
weaker but off the lows with the stronger euro limiting gains. On the KC July 
chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.40 with the next level of 
support the fresh low at $5.00 1/4.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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